India’s Potential to Surpass China in Economic Growth by 2028

India to Overtake China in Economic Growth by 2028

According to reports from foreign media outlets, India may surpass China in terms of economic growth by 2028. Investment banks such as Barclays and Bloomberg Economics have made optimistic forecasts, suggesting that India could become the engine of global economic growth in the next five years under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. With India’s general elections scheduled for May, the country’s economic growth potential has garnered significant attention.

India’s Growth Projections

Barclays predicts that India’s economic growth rate will accelerate to 9% by the end of this decade, while China’s growth rate is expected to slow down to 3.5%. Bloomberg Economics also supports this optimistic outlook, stating that India’s GDP growth could reach 6.5% or even higher. These projections indicate that India has the potential to overtake China in terms of economic growth within the next decade.

Currently, India’s GDP stands at $3.5 trillion, while China’s GDP is at $17.8 trillion. In the fourth quarter of 2023, China’s economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while India experienced a growth rate of 8.4% in the third fiscal quarter (October-December) compared to the same period the previous year.

Challenges and Opportunities

Prime Minister Modi has made accelerating India’s GDP growth one of his main election promises. However, there are several challenges that need to be addressed in order for India to surpass China’s economic growth. Foreign companies looking to do business in India often face difficulties such as poor infrastructure, bureaucratic hurdles, and a shortage of skilled workers.

To overcome these challenges and bypass China in terms of GDP growth, the Indian authorities need to focus on infrastructure development, urban planning, and improving the quality of the workforce. These efforts would not only attract foreign investment but also make India more competitive on the global stage.

Long-Term Outlook

In 2023, experts from Goldman Sachs predicted that India’s economy would become the second largest in the world by 2075, surpassing countries like Japan, Germany, and the United States, and coming close to China. According to their forecasts, China’s economy is projected to reach $57 trillion in 52 years, while India’s would reach $52.5 trillion and the United States’ $51.5 trillion.

These long-term projections highlight the immense growth potential of the Indian economy. However, it is important for the Indian government to address the current challenges and seize the opportunities presented to ensure sustained economic growth and achieve its goal of becoming a global economic powerhouse.